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Monday, November 7, 2011

Reaction to Week 11 BCS rankings

The weekly BCS rankings were released last night and, depending on how you view one-loss teams being ranked higher than undefeated teams, there weren't really any big surprises. For reference, here are the current BCS rankings:

1. LSU
2. Oklahoma State
3. Alabama
4. Stanford
5. Boise State
6. Oklahoma
7. Oregon
8. Arkansas
9. Clemson
10. Virgina Tech
11. Houston
12. Penn State
13. South Carolina
14. Kansas State
15. Georgia
16. Texas
17. Michigan State
18. Wisconsin
19. Nebraska
20. Auburn
21. Georgia Tech
22. Southern Miss
23. Cincinnati 
24. Michigan
25. Baylor

Notes on 11-25:
No. 12 Penn State might win the award for the worst one-loss team in the history of college football. To be fair, the Nittany Lions would probably be the worst undefeated team ever if they didn't have the moxy to schedule Alabama and instead scheduled another Indiana State-esque team to trounce--so kudos there. To be realistic, they haven't played a ranked team all year outside of Alabama. Their remaining schedule looks like this: Nebraska, at Ohio State, at Wisconsin. They won't be favored in any of those games and will most likely lose them all. Enjoy No. 12 while it lasts, Happy Valley residents.

No. 16 Texas falls into the same category as Penn State. Its two losses are at the hands of two top-10 teams in Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but its wins leave something to be desired. The Longhorns' marquee win right now is UCLA...ouch. They do have a chance to prove their worth in the top-25 with upcoming games against Kansas State, Texas A&M and Baylor.

One team that I think is ranked too low is No. 21 Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets boasts a win against a top-5 team in Clemson and both of its losses are on the road. I think Georgia Tech should switch spots with Texas for the time being.

Notes on the Top 10:

At No. 1 we have LSU coming off of the thrilling win against Alabama in the "Game of the Century." No surprises there.

No. 2 falls to Oklahoma State. The Cowboys had a close call against Kansas State last weekend but managed to pull out a victory, 52-45. If the Cowboys can win a home game against Oklahoma in Bedlam, they'll most likely get a National Championship game bid.

I, for one, was not surprised to see the Crimson Tide only fall to No. 3. A 3-point loss in overtime to the No. 1 team in the country is about the best loss you can hope for.

No. 4 Stanford held steady after an easy victory against Oregon State. The Cardinal has the biggest game of its season coming up this weekend against Oregon. ESPN's College GameDay will be on hand to add some pressure and national attention to the two west coast teams. The winner will control its destiny in the North division. A win by Stanford gives the Cardinal a legitimate chance to play in the National Championship game, and don't count out Oregon if it can upset Andrew Luck and company in Palo Alto.

Poor Boise State is holding steady at No. 5. Unfortunately for them, I think that's about as high as they can hope for. With the sheer volume of quality one-loss teams waiting for the few remaining undefeateds to fall, it looks like the Broncos are going to be passed up for a title bid again. Here's your consolation prize: an under-hyped BCS bowl in which you'll likely crush your opponent.

Here we come to that competitive group of one-loss teams I was talking about, headlined by No. 6 Oklahoma. The Sooners must feel pretty good right now. After an embarrassing defeat at home to a 30-point 'dog two weeks ago, Oklahoma came roaring back with victories against (formerly undefeated) Kansas State and Texas A&M, the former of which is made all the more impressive after K-State almost knocked off Oklahoma State this past weekend.

Nos. 7 Oregon and 8 Arkansas are proof that I don't understand the BCS process. Last week after Arkansas managed to squeak by Vanderbilt because of a missed field goal, they move up three places past Oregon to No. 7, much to my amazement. This week, when I feel like they've finally earned their No. 7 spot by beating No. 9 South Carolina, they fall behind Oregon. You win this round, computers.

Rounding out the Top-10 we have two teams that have a lot in common. Both teams have one loss, both teams had last weekend off, and both teams play in the ACC. I'm talking about No. 9 Clemson and No. 10 Virginia Tech who could be on a collision coarse to meet in the ACC Championship game.

Predictions:
There are a couple games that could change the Top 25 this week. Top-25 teams that I see losing this weekend:

No. 7 Oregon losing to No. 4 Stanford
No. 10 Virginia Tech losing to No. 21 Georgia Tech
No. 12 Penn State losing to No. 19 Nebraska
No. 23 Cincinnati losing to West Virginia
No. 20 Auburn losing to No. 15 Georgia
No. 1 LSU losing to Western Kentucky...just seeing if you're paying attention

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