It's finally here—the preeminent Pac-12 game of the 2011 season: No. 7 Oregon Ducks (8-1, 6-0) versus No. 4 Stanford Cardinal (9-0, 7-0).
Strangely enough, both teams have to be thinking in the backs or their minds about revenge. For Stanford, last year's match-up against the Ducks resulted in the Cardinal's only loss. For Oregon, the Ducks' only conference blemish in the Chip Kelly Era came at the hands of a sophomore Andrew Luck in 2009. No matter what either team says, it's personal.
The winner controls its destiny in the North division and will most likely earn the right to play either UCLA or Arizona State in the inaugural Pac-12 Championship game. Both teams still have a realistic shot at making the championship game, although Oregon is more of a dark horse candidate.
Last season, the Ducks stunned Stanford as the Cardinal's 21-3 first quarter lead evaporated en route to a 52-31 Oregon win. The Ducks' defense managed to shut out the Heisman runner-up in the second half.
But that was at Autzen Stadium in Eugene. This game will be played on the Farm in Stanford Stadium, where the Ducks lost 51-42 in 2009.
Hmm, I'm beginning to see a pattern here. Last year the final score was 52-31; 83 combined points. In 2009 it was 51-42; 93 combined points. Anyone predicting a defensive struggle had better take his medication. The only one that will be getting a better workout than the players on Saturday will be the scoreboard operator. Well, and the Oregon Ducks' mascot.
To top it all off, ESPN's College GameDay will be attending the festivities. This marks the first time Kirk Herbstreit, Lee Corso, Chris Fowler, Desmond Howard and Erin Andrews have visited the Stanford campus as part of the weekly show. Oregon is no stranger to the crew, though. The Ducks are 5-1 in GameDay games, including wins earlier this year against Arizona State and last year against Stanford.
No matter the outcome, this game will give the Pac-12 conference some much needed exposure.
Until Stanford's marathon triple-overtime battle with USC two weeks ago, I was dead set on believing that they were just a little bit better than Oregon this year. I've since reevaluated my position, and no, the slaughtering of Oregon State last week did nothing to persuade me either way.
Let's take a closer look at the USC game and what made it so close.
Luck was 29 of 40 for 330 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. Not the most spectacular statistics but definitely not the box score of a poor performance.
The Cardinal dominated the time of possession (35:15), won the turnover battle, had more yards—rushing and passing—and yet USC still managed to keep it even until the third overtime. Stanford should have won that game by two possessions in regulation, but for inexplicable reasons, they didn't.
That should worry Cardinal fans. Championship teams should win games out of nowhere, not almost lose them.
The real question is whether Oregon's secondary can stop Andrew Luck's passing attack and whether Stanford's defensive line can contain LaMichael James and the Ducks' rushing attack.
The answer to both is no. Both teams will score points in droves. The game will be decided by which team can most closely approach those goals.
I've looked at this game from every angle. These two teams are very evenly matched. It's possible that this game is decided by who has the ball last or by a timely turnover. But, for the sake of argument, here's a position by position breakdown of the game.
Quarterback:
Oregon's junior signal caller Darron Thomas has had a roller coaster season thus far. Before missing week 8's game against Washington State because of a knee injury suffered the previous week, Thomas averaged 204.5 ypg passing with 17 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and he rushed for 19.3 ypg and 2 touchdowns. In his two games back, he's averaged 161.0 ypg passing with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and only 2.0 ypg rushing with no touchdowns. For Oregon to keep Stanford's defense honest, Thomas will need to return to his pre-injury form.
Stanford's Andrew Luck is the best quarterback in college football (sorry Case Keenum). He has a 71.3 completion percentage and has amassed 2424 yards (269.3 ypg), 26 touchdowns and 5 interceptions this season. He's a Heisman trophy favorite and the consensus overall first pick in the upcoming NFL draft. He having a bad game is as likely as the Ducks wearing the same uniform combination as last week.
Advantage: Stanford
Running Backs:
Oregon is rushing team first...and second, and usually third. Game after game coach Chip Kelly has put the ball in the capable hands of his stable of runners. All-American LaMichael James is the star of the show and will most likely be Oregon's response to Luck. To date, with only seven games under his belt, he's gained 1061 yards on 133 carries. That's 151.6 ypg and 8.0 yards a carry, both of which lead the nation. Backup Kenjon Barner has rushed for 601 ypg, and freshman De'Anthony Thomas has also contributed to the ground game, adding 349 yards on 41 carries.
Despite having the most elite quarterback in the land, Stanford has a very competent run game. The team's leading rusher Stephan Taylor has racked up 891 yards this season. In contrast to James's quick, get-to-the-edge speed, Taylor is a power-I formation back that will run straight up the middle. Oregon has shown a weakness to larger running backs in the past, which is evident when looking at Toby Gerhart's 2009 performance of 223 yards on 38 carries.
Advantage: Oregon (but not by as much as you might think)
Wide Receivers:
With the graduation of Jeff Maehl last year, Darron Thomas lost his go-to receiver and has yet to find a replacement. True freshmen De'Anthony Thomas is the team's leading receiver with 25 receptions for 382 yards, followed closely by Lavasier Tuinei with 28 receptions for 360 yards. To make matters worse, Oregon wideouts have developed the nasty habit of dropping balls. For Oregon to keep Stanford from stacking the box, De. Thomas, Tuinei, Josh Huff and tight end David Paulson will need to get open, and Darron Thomas will have to get the ball to them on time and on target.
Stanford would have the clear edge in this comparison if their star wide receiver Chris Owusu wasn't labeled as doubtful for the game. In his absence, leading receiver Griff Whalen and senior Coby Fleener will have to step up to keep Oregon's corners guessing. Whalen has 534 yards on 36 receptions with two touchdowns, and Fleener has 431 yards on 20 receptions. Oregon's numbers are comparable with Stanford's, but it's more who's throwing to the receivers that makes them dangerous.
Advantage: Stanford. Luck strikes again.
Defense:
The Oregon defense has come alive as of late. Many called last year's unit "underrated" and it seems like maybe the 2011 version might also be flying under the radar after shutting out the Washington Huskies at home in the second half last week. The Ducks D allows 20.8 points/game (26th), 234.6 ypg passing and 149.2 ypg rushing. Oregon has 10 interceptions to its name but is without controversial cornerback/punt returner Cliff Harris , who intercepted Luck twice last year, because of suspension. All of these statistics become much more impressive when you take into account that Oregon has the worst time of possession of any FBS school. That's right, it's dead last. That means that the Oregon defense has been on the field longer than any other squad in the nation.
Statistically, the Stanford defense is superior to Oregon's. The Cardinal only gives up 16.6 points a game (11th). The defense does allow slightly more yards through the air than Oregon's (245.1 ypg) but makes up for it with its stingy, 3rd-best run defense (78.9 ypg). Unfortunately, statistics can be misleading sometimes. Stanford has yet to play a team the caliber of Oregon, and has padded its stats with games against San Jose State and Duke, not that I blame them.
Advantage: Neither. Both defenses are going to be torn up in this game.
X-factor
De'Anthony Thomas has improved every game since his poor performance in Oregon's opener against LSU. He has grown into a true threat from any aspect of the offense. He averages 8.5 yards per rush and 15.3 yards per catch and has seen time as a return man in special teams. If Thomas has a big game, the Ducks will win.
For Stanford, the x-factor is not a player but its home-field advantage. Normally this is strictly considered an advantage, but Cardinal fans aren't accustomed to such big games. Will the fans be able to keep their team going even if Oregon takes an early lead? Will they be able to distract the up-tempo Oregon offense? Will they be able to prevent a sea of green and yellow from invading the stands? This is your time to shine, Cardinal faithful.
Prediction
My prediction is for Oregon. That's right, I think Lee Corso is going to don the Oregon Duck mascot head at the conclusion of College GameDay. As far as the game goes, I have to take Stanford. Luck is just too good. If the game were in Eugene, I'd probably take the Ducks, but it's not.
The spread is 3.5 points in favor of Stanford. I could be wrong but I'm going to take the points. The over/under right now is at 68. Take the over if you're a betting man. That's about as close to a sure thing as you'll get in sports.
A late scoring drive puts this one away.
Oregon 38, Stanford 48
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