This Saturday at 7:30 pm, the No. 8 Oregon Ducks (7-1, 5-0 Pac-12) takes on the Washington Huskies (6-2, 4-1 Pac-12) at Husky Stadium. Washington's only conference loss came two weeks ago against undefeated Stanford in Palo Alto, 65-21, while Oregon's only blemish thus far occurred in the first week of the season against now-No. 1 LSU.
To both Ducks and Huskies fans, this is a heated rivalry between bitter enemies fighting for dominance in the Great Northwest. Well, it is for anyone who has followed these teams for a few decades. If you've only been following college football for the past seven years or less, you've never seen the Huskies beat the Ducks, in fact. The last time Washington dashed Ducks fans hopes was back in 2003. But the streak has to end sometime, right? Right?
Both teams have a lot to lose in this match-up as the winner has a chance to win the Pac-12 North division. Even with a win, though, Washington would need some help. A Huskies upset would give Oregon its first conference loss, but Stanford would still be perfect. An Oregon win over Stanford on Nov. 12 would result in a three-team tie in the North division.
Here's where it gets tricky. According to the Pac-12's tiebreakers, after the final week of the regular season, if the above scenario occurred, the lowest ranked team in the BCS standings would be eliminated from contention, then head-to-head wins would be applied. That would result in Oregon getting the bid to play the South champion in the inaugural Pac-12 Championship game. For the Washington to make it, it would need Stanford to lose two games, and that's not likely to happen as long as Andrew Luck is there.
But that's getting ahead of ourselves.
On Saturday, Washington will first need to show that it can stay with the high-flying Ducks. Oregon's offense averages 526.9 ypg (7th in FBS) and 47.5 ppg (4th in FBS). Oregon's prolific offense is lead by a stable of running backs to the tune of 309.3 ypg rushing. Unfortunately for the Huskies, Oregon All-American running back LaMichael James is reported to be one-hundred percent after the horrific elbow injury that he suffered late in the game against California.
We saw James last week against Washington State. He was not quite up to his Heisman-runner-up form, as he rushed for only 53 yards on 13 carries, but he said after the game that he was just feeling it out and didn't feel like he needed to play as if he was trying to rush for 300 yards.
Oregon is not the only Northwest team with a skilled back, though. Washington's Chris Polk has rushed for 1016 yards (5th in FBS), versus James's 905 yards. Of course, that's not taking into account that James missed Oregon's last two games with injuries and had rushed for 200-plus yards in the three games prior to the games missed by the injury.
Oregon's running game has been stifled in the past by teams with stout defense lines like LSU. Unfortunately, Washington's defense ranks 43rd nationally against the run. I don't see the Huskies stopping James, Kenyon Barner, Darron Thomas and De'Anthony Thomas. The game will have to be a shootout for Washington to have a chance.
Fortunately for Washington, if Oregon has shown a weakness this year, it's been its defense. Nationally, Oregon ranks 26th, allowing almost 400 ypg to opposing teams. The Ducks (ironically) have been particularly weak through the air, allowing 239.4 ypg. Huskies sophomore quarterback Keith Price will have to exploit this weakness if he wants his team to have a shot on Saturday.
But what should Ducks fans really be worried about? It's not the shaky pass defense, nor James's purple and gold counterpart Chris Polk nor the fact that every one is picking the Ducks. What should keep the green and yellow faithful on their toes the whole game is knowing that the Huskies and its fans will be emotionally invested even more than usual because it will be the last game in beloved Husky Stadium for quite some time, as it is slated to be renovated following Saturday's showdown.
As of today, Vegas has Oregon as a 16.5 point favorite. I understand that this game is special to the Huskies and that they want revenge for the past better part of a decade, and that they have an outstanding running back, and that the Ducks have performed less-than-efficiently on the road this year, but I'm still taking Oregon with the points (not that I'm actually betting). Oregon has something to prove after even allowing Washington State fans hope in the second half last week in Autzen. The Ducks might under-perform every once in awhile, but not two weeks in a row.
Prediction: Oregon 44, Washington 20
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